Happy New Year! In my first post of 2022 I thought I’d do something a bit different. Partly because I haven’t seen any films yet this year, but also because this is something I’ve been wanting to try out but normally I miss the moment. Normally I do Oscar Predictions based on the nominations and then I say who I think will win. This year I will be doing that but I’m also going to try and predict the nominees themselves ahead of them being announced by the Academy on February 8th 2022.
I’ll be basing these predictions on other award nominations that have already been announced (e.g. The Golden Globes) and general Oscar Buzz. For a lot of these films, I haven’t seen them, either because I haven’t had time yet or because they haven’t been released in the UK yet. So these are predictions and not what I want to be nominated. Just to clarify also, the numbers are just so I know how many nominees there are, not which I think will win. If the numbers mean anything its more how certain they will get nominated, with 1 being certain and going up to 5 or 10 as least certain. So let’s get on with it:
Best Picture
My Predictions: 1. Belfast, 2. The Power of the Dog, 3. West Side Story 4. Licorice Pizza 5. King Richard 6. Dune 7. CODA, 8. Tick, Tick… Boom! 9. The Lost Daughter 10. No Time to Die
This year the academy has said there will be 10 nominees for Best Picture and I think the Academy will look to nominate some of the bigger Box Office draws this year, hence my prediction for No Time to Die to be nominated. Spiderman: No Way Home will make a big push, but I can’t see it being nominated in the biggest category, perhaps some of the technical ones instead. Outside contenders would include The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley and Don’t Look Up.
Best Director
My Predictions: 1. Jane Campion- The Power of the Dog, 2. Kenneth Branagh- Belfast, 3. Denis Villeneuve- Dune, 4. Paul Thomas Anderson- Licorice Pizza, 5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi- Drive My Car
The past few years the Academy has tended to nominate at least one director of a Foreign Language film, hence why I’ve gone for Hamaguchi, who I think will edge out Steven Spielberg for West Side Story, who just misses out. Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter is also an outside contender.
Best Actor
My Predictions: 1. Will Smith- King Richard, 2. Benedict Cumberbatch- The Power of the Dog, 3. Andrew Garfield- Tick, Tick… Boom!, 4. Denzel Washington- The Tragedy of Macbeth, 5. Peter Dinklage- Cyrano
My early winner prediction here is that Will Smith is taking home this award. It’s just one of those where even though its not his best ever performance, he should have an Oscar by now. Outside shouts for Cooper Hoffman in Licorice Pizza and Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up.
Best Actress
My Predictions: 1. Kristen Stewart- Spencer, 2. Lady Gaga- House of Gucci, 3. Olivia Colman- The Lost Daughter, 4. Alana Haim- Licorice Pizza, 5. Nicole Kidman- Being the Ricardos.
My other early prediction is Kristen Stewart to win Best Actress for Spencer. I think her only real competition is Lady Gaga here. Outside nomination shouts for Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Rachel Zegler in West Side Story. I think Jennifer Hudson in Respect is also a strong contender and could come in place of Nicole Kidman, I didn’t include her though partly from her lack of nomination at the Golden Globes and the lack of recognition for that film.
Best Supporting Actor
My Predictions: 1. Ciaran Hinds- Belfast, 2. Bradley Cooper- Licorice Pizza, 3. Kodi Smitt-McPhee- The Power of the Dog, 4. Jamie Dornan- Belfast, 5. Troy Kostur- Coda
The supporting categories are a lot harder to call this year. If I had to make an early winners prediction I’d say its between Ciaran Hinds and Bradley Cooper. Ben Affleck in The Tender Bar is an outside shout for a nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
My Predictions: 1. Ariana DeBose- West Side Story, 2. Catriona Balfe- Belfast, 3. Kirsten Dunst- The Power of the Dog, 4. Aunjanue Ellis- King Richard, 5. Marlee Matlin- Coda
Another very open category, could be any of the top three for the win. I was also very torn between Marlee Matlin and Rita Moreno for West Side Story for the final place.
Best Original Screenplay
My Predictions: 1. Licorice Pizza, 2. Belfast, 3. King Richard, 4. C’mon, C’mon, 5. Being the Ricardos.
Could be PTA’s chance at an Oscar if he doesn’t get Best Director. Outside nominations chance here for Don’t Look Up too.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Predictions: 1. The Power of the Dog, 2. Coda, 3. The Lost Daughter, 4. The Tragedy of Macbeth, 5. West Side Story
There are quite a few options for this category. I think Drive My Car and Dune are both also in with a shout.
Best Animated Feature
My Predictions: 1. Encanto, 2. Luca, 3. Raya and the Last Dragon, 4. The Mitchells vs the Machines, 5. Flee.
Wouldn’t surprise me if something like Ron’s Gone Wrong is in instead of The Mitchells vs the Machines. This category is a bit more open than some years, but Encanto is definitely a strong favourite here.
Best Original Song
My Predictions: 1. King Richard- Be Alive, 2. The Harder They Fall- Guns Go Bang, 3. Encanto- Dos Oruguitas, 4. No Time to Die- No Time to Die, 5. Don’t Look Up- Just Look Up.
Sometimes this is a very boring category but this year could see some of the biggest names in music face up against each other. Beyonce and Jay-Z could take on each other, marking the first time in Oscar history a husband and wife have competed in the same category. Lin-Manuel Miranda could complete an EGOT and Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande could also be in the running, two of the biggest stars on the planet. The Academy will be trying desperately to get them all to turn up to the ceremony in a bid to boost ratings. My money would be on No Time to Die taking home the prize, Bond themes have done well in recent years and it features more prominently in the film than some of the other entries.
Best Original Score
My Predictions: 1. The Power of the Dog- Jonny Greenwood, 2. Dune- Hans Zimmer, 3. Encanto- Germaine Franco, 4. The French Dispatch- Alexandre Desplat, 5. The Harder They Fall- Jeymes Samuel.
Jonny Greenwood could also be nominated for Spencer, whilst Hans Zimmer could also get a nod for No Time to Die, so I think it will be a race between these two which is great as they are both excellent composers who deserve Oscars.
I will stop there with my predictions, but I will do another set of predictions (this time for each category) when the nominations are released (hopefully by then I will have seen some more of the films) giving my predictions and my personal choices. Let’s see how accurate my predictions are. See you then!
Movie Night 